Research
Working Paper
Natanson A. "Economic Impacts of Sanctuary and ICE Policies: Inclusive and Exclusive Institutions"
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Using county-level census data and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) data on economic indicators, this study exploits quasi-experimental variation in the time and space of policy implementation to isolate the effects of local immigration policies on U.S. counties. These policies range from areas where immigrants are strictly regulated via collaboration with ICE compared to those that provide protections. The study finds evidence that providing protections to immigrants increases overall per capita income, wages, GDP, and total employment, while unemployment experienced a decline. Meanwhile, the data show that punitive measures have no statistically significant effect on income and unemployment but adverse effects overall on GDP, total employment, and the proportion of the foreign-born population. These results support a model of immigration policy as an institution that can either support or suppress productivity, and they confirm that immigrant labor is a positive driver of economic well-being at the local and regional level.
Working Paper
Natanson A. "Impacts of Harmful Algal Blooms on Property Values in Western Lake Erie"
This study examines the economic consequences of eutrophication in one of North America's Great Lakes by measuring whether property values decline due to harmful algal blooms in the urban and suburban areas of western Lake Erie in the city of Toledo. I quantify the broader value of the ecosystem services that the lake provides. With housing sales from around the city of Cleveland as a control group, I apply a difference-in-difference model to pre-matched data on housing prices, control for census tract as well as time fixed effects, and in one of the specifications, limit the data to houses sold repeatedly over the study period. Pre-trend tests suggest valid counterfactuals. Estimates show a decline in house prices of 13 and 25 percent in 2008 and 2011, respectively, and comparisons between locations near and far from HABs in Toledo show declines of 9 and 24 percent in 2008 and 2011. Results imply an overall loss due to HABs, totaling close to 3 billion dollars during the study period.
Working Paper
Natanson A. "Do Economic Indicators Influence Immigration Policies Choice?"
Using county-level data from the American Community Survey on demographic and economic indicators and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) data, this study exploits the variation in economic indicators across time and space to isolate the effects of these indicators on immigration policy choice by counties. This research aims to determine whether the selection of pro- or anti-immigrant policies is consistent with the narrative that economic conditions drive the choice of immigration policy. The study finds no correlations between included economic variables and selecting immigrant-friendly policies. When using cross-sectional variation, the probability of choosing anti-immigrant policies increases with unemployment, non-citizen population, voting for a Republican president, and the decline of wages. Once fixed effects at the county level are included, all correlations between economic variables and policy outcomes disappear. This suggests that policy choice has a stronger relationship with longer-term trends and unobservable and is not driven by short-term fluctuations in per capita income, unemployment, wages, and immigrant presence.